Gun Nutz

Want to creep out your friends, make yourself unattractive to the opposite sex, as well as basically unemployable?   Start collecting high-powered weaponry!  Gun Nutz are just that - crazy.  And no one likes crazy people!

The recent shootings in America (and there a lot of them, every day, that do not get reported beyond the local papers) have everyone "up in arms" (if you will pardon the pun) about gun control.

The NRA, which represents 4 million members (out of a country of 300+ Million) has Washington terrorized.  Cross the NRA and you will not get re-elected!  Those 4 million people must vote twice or something.

But the NRA is an interesting beast.  Many of my hunting friends are disgusted with it.   They keep their membership only to get member benefits and discounts.  Others have dropped their memberships, particularly when Wayne "Call Me Crazy" LaPierre says offensive and bizarre things.  George HW Bush tore up his life member card in 1996 over LaPierre's comments following the Oklahoma City bombing.

The idea that the NRA represents the voices of all gun owners is flawed.  And as hunting declines in popularity in this country, more and more of the "hard core" NRA membership comprises gun collectors who collect arsenals of assault weapons - spending the weekend shooting up old appliances and cars (instead of deer or paper targets) on modern, automatic-weapon-friendly shooting ranges.

As sales of hunting rifles have dropped, sales of assault-style firearms to non-hunters has risen.  The NRA is following the market - or perhaps leading it.  By creating demand for high-power weaponry (and arsenals of weapons) among citizens, the NRA primes the pump on sales.  And every time new gun legislation is talked about, the NRA raises the alarm - and gun sales skyrocket.

As I noted in another posting, I have nothing against firearms.  Owning a rifle or shotgun for hunting is not a bad thing.  You might even buy a handgun for "protection" - although as I noted, it is like buying a parachute on the premise you might fall off a tall building.  It is an expensive form of protection, and the odds you will need it are slim - and the odds you will have it, at the right time and right place, are even slimmer.  But the odds that it will go off at the wrong time and hurt someone - including yourself - are pretty high.

But that is the thing about poor and stupid people (which are overlapping groups):  One profound tagging characteristic of the poor is their inability to comprehend probability or understand their real risks in life.  They over-insure for long-shots, while leaving huge vulnerabilities unprotected.  They gamble in casinos, convinced they can "win" when the odds are stacked against them.  They are convinced that confronting a criminal is a common even in life, but that failing to save for retirement is nothing to worry about.  The less you understand probability, the poorer you will be.

The odds of you being a victim of a violent crime are slim - despite what you see on the television (which is all crime shows, mostly).   The odds that you will "twart" a crime with a gun of your own are infinitesimal.  That is the sum and substance of it, really, if you want to believe the real numbers.  The NRA prefers instead to tout anecdotal evidence of robberies and other crimes thwarted by gun-toting citizens.  The reality is, this rarely happens in real life.

But hey, if you want to buy a pistol, then go for it. Just be very careful with it.  I have a number of friends who have or had guns, and from what I can see, many of them are not very careful.  They show them off to friends (a bad idea in and of itself), for example, not realizing they are loaded (an even worse idea).  And this happens a lot, too.  Just the other day, some guy shot his own kid, not realizing there was a bullet in the chamber.  Dumb, yea, but with a gun, there often is no second chance.

Out in the country, we have rifles and pistols for other reasons - dispatching rabid raccoons, for example.  They do have legitimate uses.  And having a firearm around - kept safely - can be handy.

But there are a number of people in this country who are not just buying a pistol for protection or a rifle to go hunting with.  They buy many weapons - often dozens - and thousands of rounds of ammunition.  They hoard guns and then spend their leisure time shooting them.  These are what I call "Gun Nutz".

Now granted, some are collectors, looking to own a number of fine antiques.  These are not what  I am talking about.  The collector values a gun for its rarity, craftsmanship, cultural or historical significance.  They take care of them, shoot them only occasionally (if at all), and cherish them as part of a collection.

The Gun Nutz are more concerned with firepower - how many rounds the gun will hold, its "stopping power" and the like.  And when they shoot, they don't go after paper targets, but rather, like little children, like to shoot at old cars or appliances, to witness the destruction involved.  Or they shoot at watermelons, secretly pretending it is someone's head they are exploding with their teflon-coated "cop-killer" bullets.

Gun Nutz are just plain crazy.

And unfortunately, this kind of crazy makes people shy away from them, which in turn leads them to feel more and more isolated.  Many of them - usually men - take up this form of hobby as a means of feeling more powerful - part and parcel of the Culture of Belligerence that I wrote about before.   They buy guns to feel more in control of their lives, which are often on the verge of falling apart.  And of course, part of this is due to the face they spend so much money on guns.

And Gun Nutz make all sorts of crazy claims which are part and parcel of their craziness and distance from reality:

"Our freedom to own firearms is the only thing preventing our country from turning into a Police State!" one says, neglecting to realize that most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and a number of other countries have more reasonable restrictions on firearms (but not outright bans, despite what they may say) and are hardly Police States.

"No country would dare attack us, because our citizenry is armed!" another says.  Again this sense of self-aggrandizement raises its ugly head.  Our country is safe because we have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world, plus the largest Navy, Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps - and a Defense budget larger than the next ten largest countries combined.   That is what is keeping us free, not a bunch of yahoos shooting at washing machines in a gully on the weekends.

But again, Gun Nutz live in their own little world, full of conspiracy theories, and dark secrets, usually spread by e-mails and wacky websites - information that the "mainstream  media" doesn't want to read, of course!  They are, nuts.

And I predict that is only a matter of time before they start arguing that the recent shootings were in fact staged, so "Obama can use them as justification to take away our guns!"  Coming soon to a conspiracy website near you!

The problem with being Gun Nutz is that is isolates you from society.  Normal human beings will shun you for being crazy (because you likely are a little off) and thus add to your feelings of isolation.  Relying more and more on reinforcement from fringe websites and peer groups, the gun nut will become more and more paranoid, and thus buy more guns.  And the NRA is complicit in this scheme, as they crank up the paranoia to level 11 in every publication and plea for more money.  Like the fundamentalist churches, they claim to be persecuted, even as everyone goes out of their way not to step on any toes.

And one sure way to improve your mental health is to stop acting crazy.  Renounce conspiracy theories (which are total time wasters and do nothing for your personal life) and stop acting weird.  Pretty soon, you may actually stop being weird.   It can't hurt to try, can it?

I had a friend who had a small arsenal of about 15 guns - rifles, shotguns, pistols, etc, including an assault-style rifle.  And no, he didn't hunt, either.  He lived in a nice wealthy suburban neighborhood that was hardly "dangerous".   He lived in fear of being robbed or burgled.  And fear is an emotion not to be trusted.   He was always having financial troubles, but every spare dollar he put into weaponry and ammo.    And he was creepy and weird.  He had trouble making friends and finding a mate.  Women got creeped out by him after a date or two, particularly when he suggested they go to the firing range.  Maybe that works as a romantic date in Wasilla, Alaska, but in most urban areas, it just makes people edgy.  

And his friends and employers started to view him as an oddball - and wonder when he would "go off" with all these weapons that he had for no apparent real reason.  His view of the world was paranoid.  He was convinced that he would be robbed, burgled, mugged, or assaulted at any given moment.  And of course, he held wild right-wing views and listened to talk radio all day long.  He was a political junkie, and made his personality so toxic that no one wanted to be around him - except his Mom.

Another fellow, at the Patent Office, brought his gun to work, so he could park in a bad part of town and walk to the office.  This was, of course, a violation of Federal Law.  And on one dark night, some kids jumped him, and he pulled out his gun. They took it away from him and shot him with it, killing him.  The NRA made him a poster-boy for gun rights, even as he was killed with his own handgun.  Go figure.

Was it really worth it?

He was a creepy dude, too.  Never bathed.  And he had a life-sized poster of Oliver North on his office wall.  The last time I saw him, he couldn't understand why he wasn't getting any job offers from law firms.   Can you think of some reasons why you wouldn't hire him?  I can.
 
These are the same kind of folks who are buying gold or building bunkers for "the end times".  But none of them are funding their 401(k) as they think "Wall Street is a scam".   Betting on the rapture as your retirement plan is pretty short-sighted.  The reality is, you will likely get old and retire, and be broke, sitting in your bunker with your 20,000 rounds of moldy ammunition and canned goods.
Is that how you want to live? Really? All you gun nuts?  There is another way.....

People who collect guns are creepy and weird. Frankly, almost everyone I know who has multiple firearms (not for hunting) is someone I would not be surprised to hear about in the news as a mass-shooter.  But even if they don't "go off" over time, these sorts of people are creating their own misery in life, one gun at a time.  With every purchase, they push themselves closer and closer to weirdness.  And the end result is, well, the spokesman for creepy and weird, Wayne "Call Me Crazy" LaPierre.

No one likes gun nuts, except other gun nuts, which probably lends to their isolation and feelings of alienation. You go down the gun-nut road, expect to end up like this disturbed kid and his Mom (who was not a "warm and caring person" if she kept an AR-15 in the house, PERIOD) or like Ted Nugent (who said, live on stage, that he wanted Obama to suck on his machine gun and make Hillary "ride" it as well - sick, sick, sick!).

Fun people, huh? And Fox News had Nugent as a regular contributor. And yes, it is a crime to threaten the President, and the Secret Service paid a visit to Mr. Nugent as a result of his "joke". He is one sick MF, is all I can say. And his music sucks.

Maybe what we need are public service announcements, like they have for cigarettes - to drive home the point that owning a lot of guns isn't cool - its just creepy and weird.  Maybe if gun nuts understood the reason the rest of us avoid them is because we think they are crazy. And no one likes crazy.

And to all of you folks who say stupid stuff like "Guns don't kill people, people kill people", I am TALKING ABOUT YOU.  You are creepy and weird and no one likes you - because you use guns to overcompensate for your feelings of inadequacy and powerlessness.  They are just mechanical penises.

The NRA argues that "Well, any attempt to regulate firearms won't work 100% of the time because....." And that is true, nothing is 100% effective, whether it is seatbelt laws or whatever. You can only try to improve the situation, not make things PERFECT.  The NRA argument is that if you can't do something that is 100% effective you might as well NOT BOTHER TRYING. Makes sense, right? Unless something works all the time, why bother?   But even if we could reduce the incidence of these types of crimes by 50% or even 10%, it would be worthwhile to do SOMETHING.

And they dig this up every time there is a shooting.  "Well, existing gun laws clearly don't work, so why pass more?"   Well, of course, one reason they don't work is that the NRA has insured that any existing gun laws are so crippled so they don't work.  The instant background check is a good idea, but covers only sales through gun stores.  Buy at a gun show or from a neighbor, and the system isn't applicable.

That would be akin to saying marijuana is illegal to sell - in grocery stores.   Such a law wouldn't do much, would it?

Every time there is a mass-shooting like this, the NRA trots out the same tired old arguments:

1. " HOW DARE YOU bring up gun control, so soon after a tragic incident?" - an effective argument, as there are so many "tragic incidents" that they overlap these days, effectively cutting off any debate. My response: HOW DARE THE NRA tells us when we can talk about things!

2. "Unless the Proposed Reform works 100% of the time, why bother trying?" See above. Again, this is an effective argument for cutting off all debate, as no solution will work all the time. Even in countries with gun control laws, like the UK and Denmark, there are shootings. JUST NOT AS MANY.....

 3. "Guns Don't Kill People, People Kill People!" - this is a non-sequitur and makes no sense at all.  This week, a man went into a classroom in China and assaulted a number of kids - with a knife.   No one died as a result.  Why? Because  it is a lot harder and takes longer to kill with a knife.   Guns are different than other weapons.

4.  "They have gun laws in Europe and I read about a shooting there the other day!"  Again, the 100%-or-nothing argument, with some anecdotal evidence tossed in.  Gun laws in Europe do work and the evidence of this is in the utter lack of significant gun crime there.  Yes, they have crime there, but on a scale far, far smaller than in the USA.  Isn't less crime a desirable thing?

5.  "The mainstream media never reports how many crimes are thwarted by gun-carrying citizens! Why just the other day in Squirrel Hollow, a rapist was stopped by a man with a gun!"   The media doesn't report these stories as there are not that many of them.  In terms of crime-stopping, people carrying handguns thwart a pathetically tiny fraction of crimes.  Again, ancedotal evidence is not real evidence.  It is just stories people tell each other like the stories about "voter fraud" the GOP likes to toss around.

Expect to see more damage control in the next few weeks, as the NRA circles the wagons and raises these same three issues, again and again.

Yea, Gun Nutz have a firm grip on reality, that's for sure!

But the main thing is, if you want to be a gun nut, you are intentionally going down a path of poverty and privation.  Most gun nutz are from the lower classes and by spending thousands and even tens of thousands of dollars on weaponry and ammunition, they keep themselves there.

I have seen people who can barely feed themselves and who are "living paycheck to paycheck" go out and buy a $500 pistol and spend hundreds of dollars on ammunition every weekend at the firing range, firing it.    To solve this problem, they go out and by a match target pistol (another $250) that fires cheaper ammunition.

Yes, it is fun to have a hobby, but if you can't afford to fund your retirement, think hard before you spend bucks on guns.  And think about how it is going to affect your social life and employability.

Because when you go to a job interview spouting off conspiracy theory shit and showing people pictures of your gun collection on your iPhone (yes, I have seen this) your resume goes in the trash.

There is no profit in being a gun nut!

Magic Wands - Get Out Of Debt Guy Site

When people get into debt, they want someone to wave a magic wand and make it go away.   This makes them vulnerable to debt reduction scams.  It also means they tend to wait until things horribly go wrong before taking action.

I get regular updates from the Get Out Of Debt Guy site, which is a horror show of a site, as it has entries from all sorts of white trash, with their sob stories of stupidity and debt.   In 99% of the cases, these people got into debt over their head through utter stupidity - buying crap on time and then taking on onerous loans as a means of "tiding themselves over" without figuring out how they could pay back a 14% to 25% interest rate loan over time, if they can't even make their paycheck last to the end of the month.

There are a few sad cases were people have medical debts.  But the advice there is pretty simple:  Declare Bankruptcy and start over.   Instead, they try to make payments on a debt that will never get paid off.  They tear through their pitiful savings in their IRA or 401(k) and then decide that maybe it isn't happening.  And only then, when they are utterly destitute, do they think about Bankruptcy.

And what most of these people are looking for is a magic wand, which the Get Out Of Debt Guy doesn't have.  They want their debts to "go away" without any effort or work on their part, and without declaring Bankruptcy.   And of course, it goes without saying that they don't want to give up Cable TV, their Smart Phone, or the Harley.

So these folks engage in wishful thinking.  What is the harm in that?  A lot.  What usually ends up happening to them is this:

1.  They take on more debt to pay off debt - debt consolidation loans, home equity loans, and the sort.  This does not reduce debt, just makes the payments last longer and lowers the monthly payments slightly.  The consumer congratulates himself on this financial acumen and runs up more debt.  After all, with lower monthly payments, he can "afford" it - right?  Wrong.

2.  They try to make payments on loans they cannot afford, and go through their savings - which might be protected in Bankruptcy - instead of cutting to the chase.

3.  They send off money to people who promise to "reduce debt - without Bankruptcy!" - folks who claim to have magic wands.   Such folks, of course, are charlatans, and they just take your money and do nothing.  About half the letters to the Debt Guy are along the lines of "how can I get my money back from them?" or "How can I make them take action on my debts?"   They just don't get it.  They signed onerous loan agreements, and now they have tossed money away to a Con Artists - and yet they still believe that it will all work out somehow.

4.  As the debts pile up, they start going after more and more onerous and odious deals in life - payday loans, title pawn loans, whatever, as a means of "tiding themselves over".   More debt is just gasoline on the fire at this point, but they don't get it.  They are engaged in self-immolation.

5.  Rather than seek out a legitimate Bankruptcy Attorney (because in Redneck parlance, "Lawyers are a rip-off!") they just let things go to collection and have judgements recorded against them.  The car gets towed, the house foreclosed upon, wages are garnished, bank accounts seized.   Instead of taking action early on and possibly preserving some of these assets and getting some breathing room, they wait until they are nearly homeless before they take action.

6. At this point, they don't even have the $500 to pay a real Lawyer for a basic Bankruptcy proceeding.  And moreover, they've made their finances so complicated that the poor Lawyer who does take their case will spend months untangling it all - if he can do much of anything at that point.

So how do you "get out of debt" like the Get Out Of Debt Guy says you can do?   Well, first of all, let's address how you got in.   You have to get out of the mindset that debt is normal, desirable, and inevitable.   It is basic math.  If you make $50,000 a year, borrowing $10,000 more doesn't make you $10,000 richer, but rather $5,000 poorer, after you get done paying all that interest and other charges.  And with each debt you take on, you risk your financial future and well-being.   So debt should not be taken on for frivolous reasons like smart phones (which really are a debt instrument, as they have fixed contracts that basically pay off the cost of the phone over time) or a motorcycle, a bass boat, a pool table, or whatever.

If you take on debt, do it for smart things - your first house, or a real education.   And be smart about it.  Get the best rates and shop around.   Buy as much house as you need, not what you want.  Don't take out private student loans and ask parents to co-sign.  Go to a real school, not a for-profit college.  Major in something useful, not frivolous.  And borrow only what you need to get by, not stuff that just makes you comfortable.  Yes, it is true, many students borrow money on private student loans so they can have four years of cable-TV while in college.  That's about $5000 right there - and a distraction from your studies!

Even a car loan is a frivolous loan.  People say they need a car, but what they really want is a brand-new one, and a fancy one at that.  So they pay through the nose and pay a ton extra for collision insurance, drive it badly, drive their rates up, and end up over a barrel.   Maybe when you start out, a loan from your credit union for a short term to buy a used car is not a bad idea.  Spending big bucks on a new car at age 22?  Just dumb.

OK, you say, fine advice.  I get it.  I fucked up by not taking this seriously.  Now I am over a barrel, how is this going to help me?  I need to know how to get out, not how I got in.   But it is important to know how you got into debt, otherwise, any efforts to get out will be short-circuited by the same bad behaviors that got you into debt.  You will pay down debt and then think, "Gee, I can go spend more money, now!" and end up back where you started.  It is like congratulating yourself for losing 20 pounds by eating a whole chocolate cake.  It makes no sense.

But once you figure out how you got into this mess - and who is to blame (you, not the government or the banks).  You can take steps to get out:

1.  Cut services, sell stuff:   If you are falling behind on your bills, or "living paycheck to paycheck" or even "making all your payments" but not saving for the future, you are living beyond your means.  The only way out of this is to lower your lifestyle standards.  You are living a lifestyle you can't afford, and you need to come to grips with this.  You can't have it all, so figure out what it is that you really need and get rid of the rest.  And a lot of what you think you need is really just crap you want.   You will have to do this, no matter what you do in the next steps, otherwise you will end up where you started in a few years.  So do this and do it now. Cut Cable, get rid of cell phones, sell that hobby car, bike, boat, etc.  You can't afford it.  You only think you can.  $100 a month is $125,000 out of your 401(k) at retirement.

2.  Figure out if you can pay your debts:   Chances are, you can't.  Most people, once in debt, will never get out, without Bankruptcy.  But if you can sell enough crap and cut cable TV, cell phones, get a roommate, or whatever, you might be able to whittle down the debt, over time.  I was able to do this, only because I had a lot of crap to get rid of - and was not ashamed to cut everything to the bone!  On the other hand, if you are already severely delinquent and have high interest loans, forgetabout it!  You are headed to Bankruptcy, and the sooner you go there, the better.

3.  Declare Bankruptcy:  If you have more debts than assets and not enough income to pay off your debts, you are bankrupt, by definition.  Cut to the chase and go for it.  Find a real Bankruptcy Lawyer, not some stupid online con-man, and talk to him.  Bankruptcy won't discharge all your debts, but it will preserve your 401(K) and IRA (which is a good reason to have both) and allow you to keep some things like your car and tools of the trade (in some States) and work out payments on some debts.  This surely beats watching your car be towed away and your bank account be drained.   And it puts a dead halt to collection agencies.

4.  You have a fresh start - don't blow it!   A lot of people who declare bankruptcy end up in the same trouble down the road, as they just go back to doing what they were doing before, only worse.  Within a decade, they are back at step 1, and on their way to step 3 again.  If you want to be a perpetual SLAVE in life - owing money for junk and crap and feeling put upon, that is a lifestyle choice, not a preordained condition.  Look around and think about what you really want out of life.  Is a fancy car worth not funding your retirement?  Is having a Harley worth worrying about making the payments?  And what happens to this debt bandwagon if you get sick, get in an accident, lose your job, or the economy tanks?  Why live on the knife's edge of life so you can have a fancy cell phone?   Re-think your priorities and start accumulating real wealth.

Now, of course, this advice all falls on deaf ears.   People read this and whine, "But Bob!  That's haaaarrrrd!  I wanna keep all my crap and wave a magic wand and make the bad things go away!"

And I wish I could help you, but life doesn't work that way.   Life may seem harsh and difficult, but if you confront it head on, as opposed to living in denial, it is not as scary as it seems.   But this requires you to live in the real world, not some pot-smoke clouded fantasy land.

Do the hard thing.  It pays off in the long run.

A Special Note About Student Loans:  Student Loans, at the present time, are not discharged through bankruptcy, unless "extreme hardship" can be shown.   And living without a smart phone is not "extreme hardship".  Such hardship discharges (usually adjustments) have been few and far between.  But help might be on the horizon.

First, though, put your debt into perspective.  I have seen former students whining about $25,000 to $50,000 in student loan debt.   This is the price of one or two medium-priced cars in the United States.  Considering that in your lifetime, you will pay off the loans on 5-10 cars, this is hardly a staggering amount of debt to pay off.   Once you start making money, and as time and inflation devalue the dollar, you will look back and laugh at how you worried about such trivial amounts.  It may seem like a lot of money now, but in 5-10 years, you likely will be buying a house worth twice to three times that amount.  Put things in perspective!

The other thing is that in 2012, new programs have been initiated to allow for some Student Loan Debt relief.  Two programs tie the payments to a percentage (10% or 15%) of your annual income for a number of years, making it easier to make the payments when you first get out of college.  But these programs apply toward Federally guaranteed student loans only.  Private loans might not qualify.  Many people apparently don't even know about these programs, as they are not well advertised, and the application process is not easy.

There are proposals for a "Student Loan Forgiveness" act that would allow you to pay 10% of your discretionary income for ten years, and then forgive the remainder of the debt.  However, this is merely a proposal at this point, and would apply to Federal Student Loans only, not private loans.  According to some sources, this act (which is currently in committee) has a 5% chance of being voted on, and a 1% chance of passing.  Don't get your hopes up.

And if you are reading this and contemplating a Private Student Loan and/or going to a "For Profit" University - RUN AWAY as fast as possible.  Such degrees are worthless and such loans are toxic.

There are ways to go to college and even graduate school on a budget, but it requires you to think hard, work hard, and scrimp and save - all hard things.  But if you really are smart enough to go to college, you should be able to figure these things out.

There are no magic wands.  There are no Genies out there.  Sorry to be bearer of bad tidings, but that is the nature of the world and reality.   The good news is, of course, that reality is very value-neutral, and if you choose to live in it (as opposed to fantasy-land) you will do well in this world.

All you need do is act rationally in an irrational world.  Others will squander while you save, and you will come out on top!

Ugly Little Bears

Nearly two decades ago, people tried to convince themselves that these ugly little stuffed bears were "collectibles" and would be worth thousands.   What makes people think this way?

Remember beanie babies and the hoopla surrounding them?   For some reason these mass-produced stuffed bears (made in China and Indonesia, the source of the cheapest things on earth) were thought to be worth a lot of money.  They came out in 1993, and within a couple of years, people were going nuts over them.

And as usual, it was the white trash and the poor who got sucked into this "collectible" nonsense.  These are the people who buy Franklin Mint crap and Elvis commemorative plates.
 
By 1999, the fad had ended, and production was halted.   From peak to valley, the fad lasted less than five years.

It is, alas, yet another example of poverty-think and one reason I am giving up this blog.  You just can't convince stupid people of common sense.

But I'll try:   A mass-produced item from China will never be "collectible" and it will never be "valuable" just because the manufacturer says it will be so.   In fact, any manufactured good can be replicated, once its value rises far enough.  You want a numbers-matching Hemi Cuda?  People can make one for you.  It is as simple as that.

And stupid little bears?  Be serious.

Even the Beanie Baby manufacturer is trying to throw cold water on this.  The "Princess Di" bear, arguably one of the most "collectible" of all of them, is worth maybe $50 to some weeping Mom who still misses the "People's Princess".  From the Ty website:

Current Princess Beanie Baby Values
Princess values updated - December 1, 2012
Country	Swing Tag	Pellets shown on Tush Tag	Value Range *
China	No space	P.V.C.	$20 - $45
China	No space	P.E.	$15 - $20
Indonesia	No space	P.V.C.	$35 - $50
Indonesia	No space	P.E.	$15 - $20
Indonesia	Space	P.E.	$5 - $10
China	Space	P.E. no number inside tush tag	$6 - $20
China	Space	P.E. red number inside tush tag	$5 - $15
* Values shown in this table apply to a Princess in like-new condition with mint swing and tush tags. Princess without a swing tag is worth only one or two dollars..

* * *

So, you would think that would put a little damper on this idea that a $10 bear is worth hundreds, or maybe thousands of dollars, right?

Guess again.   Dozens of these insipid little bears on on eBay as I speak, with "buy it now" prices ranging from $500 to $2,000,000.

No really.  People want more for a stuffed bear than a vintage Ferrari.   They want more for a stuffed bear than I paid for my house:

 Pages and pages of these ugly bears are on eBay, often asking hundreds of thousands of dollars in price.  And yet there are literally hundreds for sale.  Not very rare, desirable, or collectible, are they? (click image to enlarge and have a good chuckle).

One of the listings says the bear is "museum quality" - but what museum, pray tell, would have such a thing?  The only museum I could find that has beanie babies is the Strong Museum ("the museum of play") in Rochester, New York, and then only because Ty gave them 700 of the damn things.  In white-trash fantasy world, museums pay millions for beanie babies, likely at auctions like Sotheby's.  But I digress.

Rareness does not equate to value, period.   I picked up a stone on the beach the other day.  It has a neat little line through it that is green.  It is unusual and unlike any other stone I have seen.  In fact, it is unlike any other stone on the planet.  It is unique.

But it is worth nothing.  Because it has no real function or use.  No one really wants to cherish it.  No one wants it for any real use that another stone couldn't be used for.  And even if they really wanted it, they really could just take another stone sort of shaped like it and chisel it into shape.   The earth has abundant resources and labor is cheap.

But, people will convince themselves that things have intrinsic value based on perceived rareness and by perceived demand.   The problem with the former has already been illustrated.  The problem with the latter is that it can evaporate rapidly.

The beanie baby craze collapsed a few years after it started.   People who paid top dollar for beanie babies realized that they had been had.   I recall after the fad died, a friend of mine gave me a bucket of them which I sold on eBay for $1 to $2 apiece at the time.   They were just beanbag stuffed animals, nothing special, collectible or even interesting to look at, play with, or display. No one wanted them anymore - when months previous, they were highly coveted.   Human nature works that way - how interesting is that?

And the same thing has happened to other "collectibles" over time.  People lose interest, and more importantly, the media hoopla that hyped these "investments" is quickly forgotten.   Things that have no intrinsic value (or little intrinsic value) tend to lose their value over time.

But people like to think this way.  Someone tried to tell me that a clapped out old snowmobile was worth money because it was a "Limited Golden Anniversary Edition" - as if a set of gold stickers on the side of the cowling negated the seized engine beneath it.  The fellow buying the "Limited Edition" car thinks that somehow it is special or rare, compared to the base model, when in fact hundreds of thousands just like his, were made.

It is like that stupid "Antiques Roadshow" on PBS, where the yokels bring in some ugly old cuckoo clock or a chair that is so rickety no one can sit in it.  And the guy says, "Gee, this would bring $5,000 at auction!" which of course it wouldn't - he is likely pulling numbers out of his ass.   Most of the junk is so ugly it hurts your eyes.  But these specious appraisals make the yokel's eyes light up - as they are so in awe of money, but understand nothing about it.

The really fine antiques?  Yes, they sell for staggering sums.  You go to a place like Winterthur and look at the furniture there, and you realize pretty quickly the sad shit in your attic is really crap.  Either it was inexpensive furniture when it was made, or it is in very bad condition and not worth much - or it is not very old, really, and thus not worth a lot.   Keeping ugly broken junk because "it is old and worth something" is idiotic.  If you don't like how it looks or works, sell it.  Chances are, anything you get for it is a good deal.  Most antiques do not appreciate at a rate much faster than inflation.   Like collecting old cars, you are deceiving yourself if you think you will make money at it - unless you are a dealer of such items.

And yes, this same effect applies to gold as well - which I have written about before, at length.  Gold has value based on demand alone, and not any intrinsic value, other than as jewelry and for electronics, which makes up a minor part of the overall demand.   Most of the demand driving up the price of gold is from people hoarding it, thinking it will go up even further in value.  When that demand slackens, and people start to sell their hoards, what will happen?

Same thing that happened to beanie babies.   But like the brave lady (or fellow) listing the two million dollar beanie baby on eBay, there will always be true believers out there - convinced that values will hold, if not in fact go up over time - if only enough people believe they will.

Merry Christmas From Costco!

Costco also pays a special dividend this year!  Ho! Ho! Ho!

I just logged into my e*trade account and found another present under the Christmas Tree.  A $7 per share dividend as a special year-end bonus.  Costco normally pays a quarterly dividend of about 25 cents, or about 1.11% rate of return at the current share price.

I bought a while ago, so my rate of return is more like 2%, which illustrates why long-term investing can pay off handsomely compared to short-term burn&churn.

$7 a share amounts to about a 7% rate of return on the stock, which on top of the 1.11% (or close to two percent) I am getting, means a rate of return this year alone, of nearly 9%.   And who says the good old days of high returns are behind us?

That in addition to the 60% increase in stock price since I bought it - I am happy with this "Stock Pick" to be sure.

But what is going on here?  Why are companies paying out high, one-time, year-end dividends? 

Well, there are a number of explanations to be sure.  And one of them is the fiscal cliff the the looming tax increases, both in capital gains and ordinary income, for 2013.

Taxes are likely to go up in 2013.  It is just a matter of how much, and on who.  Capital gains may go to 20% under Obama's proposal.   Ordinary income rates may go up for the very wealthy.

By paying out a dividend, a company can "pay" its shareholders in income, rather than capital gains.  For people like me, in the 15% bracket, this might save me money, if capital gains rates go up.

But of course, most shareholders are in higher brackets, and paying dividends in 2012 means the income is taxed at 2012 rates, not 2013 rates.   This also means that Costco might not pay as much in dividends in coming years, to compensate for the special dividend.

Costco cited the "fiscal cliff" or more specifically, the specter of higher taxes, as the reason for the dividend payment.  But they also cited a second reason - greater access to Capital.   If you can borrow money freely, at low rates, then why hoard money in a company?   On the other hand, if money is tight, then you want to keep cash to pay for expansion, rather than borrow.

That whole free ability of capital thing again.

Having a lot of cash on your balance sheet has other problems for a company.  Like with Apple, shareholders demand a slice of the Apple Pie (sorry) and demand they pay dividends.   And if you are cash-rich, you become a takeover target, as folks on the outside see an opportunity to take over, steal the cash, and then sell the shell of the company to chumps on the NASDAQ.

Whatever the reason, it looks like a good dividend season!   Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas From Access National Bank

Sometimes investments really pay off.

I got my Christmas present early this year.  The Board of Directors at Access National Bank decided to offer a 70-cent special year-end dividend, which came today in the form of a check for over $1300.

As you know, I bought this stock when a friend of mine helped start the bank about 12 years ago.  I was offered founders shares and the most I could scrape up was $10,000 at the time.

Over the years, I have sold $30,000 of this stock, and today the remaining balance is still worth close to $20,000.

In addition to this special dividend, it cranks out a dividend of 6 to 8 cents a share, every quarter.

Not a bad return on my investment!

Now, if I had only invested $100,000 in the bank, where would I be?

Oh, but time machines!  They are such devious things!

Happy Festivus

Festivus was a joke from the Seinfeld show.  Unfortunately, a lot of people didn't get the joke, and actually celebrate this new-found holiday.  Is this how Christmas got started?  Perhaps.

Christmas time is here, and it is not a favorite time of year for me, or most other people.  Kids love it, because they get a shiny new bike and an X-box, and maybe an iPad.  Unless you are poor, of course, then it sucks.  Too bad for you.  Don't be poor - that's the real meaning of Christmas, right?

Now, some of you Fox News Geniuses are going to say I am waging "war on Christmas" but as always, people who watch Fox News are full of shit.  Christmas, as its original Christian holiday is a fine thing in my book.   A minor holiday celebrating the birth of Christ - a good way to break up the Winter Solstice.  And as even the Pope reminds us, not a major holiday and no, not really in Winter.  But there it is, so there you have it.

But the Frosty-the-Snowman, Santa Claus, Little Drummer Boy, Rudolph The Red Nose Reindeer, and even the Grinch, are all added on "modern" traditions that date back to no more than 100 years - in some instances less than 50 years.  Many were created in my lifetime.  These are not time-honored traditions of yore.

And new ones are being added all the time, even as we speak.

And the worst "tradition that is not a tradition" is this idea that we all have to spend massive amounts of money buying things for people - things they do not want or need - so the retail merchants of America and our corporate overlords can show tidy profit margins.  We are exhorted to consume - for little or no purpose whatsoever.

And all of this would be fine and all, if it were enjoyable.  But Christmas is a season laden with guilt.  Did you send out your Christmas cards yet?  What about a present for Uncle Henry?  What do you get a guy lives in a bunker?  A gift box of ammo?  Christmas MRE's?  What?

It is, of course, all silly.  It is nice to buy presents for the kiddies - after all, they have no income of their own.   And that is how it all started.   Santa brought toys for the kiddies.   But now it has morphed into this sick gift exchange nonsense, which is more like bartering than anything else.  And we keep score as to who gave us what gift.

What's worse, is that we've taken a holiday that was a single day, morphed it into the 12 days of Christmas, then a month of Christmas.  And now it is wiping out Thanksgiving - after already taking New Year's Eve hostage.

Well, it can be that way, if you choose to make it that way.  You can De-Militarize Christmas, if you choose to do so.   And it is a choice, really.  No, really.  No one, not even the almighty Fox News can force you to celebrate Christmas.   Just tell people you are Jewish, or better yet Muslim - as they will honor your "traditions" with quiet reverence as we are all supposed to do.

The real meaning of Festivus was just what I am talking about here - that our traditions are very arbitrary, usually of recent vintage, and often just plain silly.   Putting an aluminim pole in your living room makes as much sense as putting in an ugly Christmas tree.  Yes, they are ugly - Christmas trees are an aesthetic nightmare, period.  There, I said it.

You can create your own Christmas traditions - I grant you permission.  Take a trip to a Carribean Island.  Go on a cruise.  Take a trip to Disney.  Stay at home and paint the garage floor.  Whatever.   Get Chinese take-out and see a movie.  Whatever works for you.

My Christmas Tradition is to run my free annual credit report.  Why not?  There's nothing fucking to do on Christmas day, other than eat, watch Television and talk to your relatives.  Ugh, Ugh, and Ugh.  It works out wells - kills an hour of time and also I am reminded to do it every year.   I also total up our finances for the year in preparation for tax season.  Christmas - a time for reflecting on how blessed you truly are - right?

It is sad to me - and a bit scary - that some folks are taking Festivus to heart and actually "celebrating" this made-up holiday.  But you know, Kwanzaa was the same way - a manufactured holiday that people started taking seriously.  As Elaine would say, "Fake, Fake, Fake, Fake!"

Who's Who?

There is a real Who's Who that lists all the names of the beautiful people.  You are not among them.

I got another telemarketer call.  The telemarketers have realized that the "Do Not Call" registry is about as effective as a restraining order on an abusing husband - and they have given up all pretense of even trying to obey the law.

But, like Police Tape, this does help the consumer.  You should assume that any unsolicited phone call is for a scam, just as any unsolicited e-mail or regular mail entreaty.  If someone calls, e-mails, texts, or mails you, asking for money, just assume it is fraudulent, period.

I pick up the phone and I say "hello" and there is a pause.  Usually this is a good time to just hang up, as that pause means a computer robodialer has detected your voice and is connecting you with a telemarketer, probably offshore.

After a short pause, some clicking and beeping, a foreign-sounding voice says, "Mr. Robert Bell?" and I say, "Hello" and they say, "may I speak to Mr. Robert Bell" to which I say, "Speaking".     Since slammers and crammers often try to get you to say the word "YES" over the phone, it is a good idea to avoid saying that word on the phone, as they will record it as use it as "evidence" that you consented to a $50 a month calling feature.   Well, at least they used to do that.  Today such scams are less common, but not obsolete.

I asked, "Who is calling please?" to which she kept saying "Mr. Robert Bell?" which is another sure sign of a scam, as people who don't immediately identify themselves on the phone are usually con artists.

Then comes the real tip-off, "How are you today?"

Telemarketers always start off with this phrase, as it disarms the listener.  "Fine, thank you" is what you are trained from birth to reply.  You have to avoid this urge and say, "Who is calling, please?"

She finally says, "I am calling from Who's Who, and we want to confirm your entry in this year's edition..."

I tell her she is violating the Do Not Call Registry, and she replies, "Well, this is a confirmation call, and...."

But I had hung up by then.

What is Who's Who and what is this scam?   I was prompted to write this as when I mentioned it to Mark, only five years my junior, he said "What the heck is Who's Who?"

What the heck, indeed.   Back before the turn of the Century - and the previous one as well - there were books like Burke's Peerage and such, where the "important people" were listed in a big book, and if you were someone, you were written up in it.   Who's Who was one of these books, and over the years, it has expanded to include celebrities, businesspeople, and the social set.   If you were in Who's Who back in 1967, you were important!

Of course, the Internet and Social Media have changed all that.  Today, nobody reads Who's Who.

And by that, I mean the real Who's Who.  Since those days, a number of fake ones have sprung up.  And those are the ones that call you on the phone and ask to "verify" your information.  The lady who called me was not from the original Who's Who, but was from one of the knock-off versions - or could have been an utter scam artist entirely.  We'll never know.

For people of my generation, I guess, the term "Who's Who" still might resonate, although I think the term is pretty dated in this day and age.

The scam is simple.  And by "scam" I don't mean they are committing any crime - far from it, they are too clever for that!  Rather, they just take your money and give you something that I believe is of little or no value in return.

They call you up to "confirm" your listing in Who's Who, and then ask for a lot of personal data.   For a nominal fee, they say, you can have an "expanded biography" in the book (which no doubt is online these days).   People who are narcissists (and we all are, to some extent) fall for this and cough up $25 to $250 or more, just to make themselves famous.

And just like the poetry scam, the company might actually publish such a book.  Since the title is in the Public Domain, they can publish "Who's Who of Lawyers" or "Who's Who of Doctors" or "Who's Who of  College Students" or whatever.   So long as at least one copy is published, or it is put on a website, they can claim they are fulfilling their half of the obligation.  And usually they do sell copies - to the people who paid to get into it!  So it is not illegal.   It's just a stupid waste of money and ego-stroking.

It is not a good value - and in that regard, I consider it a scam.   But like most good scams, it preys upon the greed of the mark - that you want your name in lights so badly, that you will pay for the privilege.  And like most excellent scams, the mark, once they realize they have been had, will be too embarrassed to tell anyone about their foolishness.  Secrecy is the con artist's best friend!

Of course, there are "legitimate" books out there that do similar shakedowns.  Martindale-Hubbel, for example, has a listing of all the lawyers in the country.  I'm in there, and no, I would not pay for an "expanded" listing.  (I saw a physical copy in a junk shop the other day, there I was, listed in Alexandria, Virginia).   But if you are a Lawyer, they will call you and ask if you want an "expanded biography" published, for an extra fee, of course.  No thanks.

In a way, it is like the yellow pages - there are so many of them today.   You get a listing for free, but those full-page ads are not cheap.  And like the yellow pages, I think these sorts of books are a poor source for leads of any source, and a poor investment for a businessperson.   No one uses the yellow pages anymore.  And the best leads are from referrals from real live friends (not online review sites!) not advertisement books.

I would not waste my money getting into any version of "Who's Who" or other book that claims to honor the "best and brightest".  I realize they are a scam, as they asked to list my name, which is proof positive that they are not seeking out the "best and brightest" but instead those with a pulse.

Sadly, some folks don't get this.  I have seen resumes with "Listed in Who's Who of College Students!" on them.   This is not really a credential, and likely, it will be one reason your resume gets tossed in the garbage.  "Clueless sod!" the HR manager will say, chuckling softly, as your crumpled resume and cover letter bounce off the edge of his wastebasket....